Eclipse Ventures has secured a landmark $2.5 billion return from its early investment in Cerebras Systems, marking a definitive validation of the firm’s decade-long strategy to digitize the physical world. Lior Susan, who founded the firm in 2015, saw his initial $6.5 million Series A bet on the semiconductor company evolve into a total investment of $147 million, resulting in a seventeenfold return at the IPO price of $185 per share this week.
From Lonely Thesis to Market Dominance
When Susan launched Eclipse, the venture capital landscape was dominated by enterprise software and SaaS, leaving his focus on “physical-world” infrastructure feeling isolated. Today, the firm sits at the epicenter of a massive shift in capital allocation. Susan argues that because 85% of global GDP is tethered to the physical world, moving beyond pure software is a necessity for long-term growth.
The market is catching up. Founders and public investors alike are pivoting, evidenced by all-time high valuations for industry giants like TSMC and Micron. According to Susan, the “moat” once enjoyed by pure software companies has evaporated in the age of generative AI.
“I think people understand that the real moat in software is gone. You can vibe-code pretty much whatever you want,” Susan said during a recent StrictlyVC event in San Francisco. He noted that the rise of tools like Anthropic’s Claude Code and OpenAI’s latest models has led to a decline in SaaS interest, as enterprises increasingly build their own internal tools.
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The Unreplicable Value of Hardware
While AI can disrupt software, it cannot replicate the complex requirements of industrial manufacturing. “What you cannot do with ‘vibe code’ is manufacture wafers, because you need machines and silicon, and they need clean rooms, and a bunch of other things,” Susan added.
This reality has triggered a surge in capital flowing into robotics, energy, and defense. Eclipse’s portfolio companies raised nearly $15 billion from outside investors last year alone, with $4.5 billion in late-stage momentum recorded in Q1 2026. This is a dramatic acceleration compared to the firm’s first eight years, where the entire portfolio raised less than $4 billion combined.
A Convergence of Global Forces
Eclipse’s recent track record highlights the firm’s role as a primary backer for high-growth industrial tech. The firm served as the Series A investor for major rounds, including $1.2 billion for Wayve, $650 million for True Anomaly, $270 million for Bedrock Robotics, and $200 million for Oxide Computer.
Susan maintains that this momentum is not solely fueled by AI. Instead, he points to a unique alignment of five forces: technology, capital, customer demand, talent, and favorable government policy. With engineers shifting focus toward semiconductors, space, and mining, and the U.S. government providing subsidies and regulatory support, the environment for industrial innovation is unprecedented.
“This is the first time I believe in America ever, from Henry Ford and Carnegie, those five forces are aligned,” Susan said. “For builders like us, this is the best time to build those companies.”
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