Prediction market platform Kalshi issued a cease-and-desist letter to Netflix this past Friday, demanding the immediate removal of the trailer for the upcoming documentary “Instadocs: The Prediction Games.” The company alleges the promotional video is defamatory, citing the inclusion of fabricated documents and misleading statements regarding its operations.
The Conflict Over “The Prediction Games”
“Instadocs: The Prediction Games” explores the rapid growth of the prediction market industry. As part of Netflix’s “Instadoc” series—which focuses on rapid-turnaround documentary content—the film includes interviews with key industry figures, specifically Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan and Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour.
Disputed Footage in Las Vegas
The controversy centers on a sequence in the trailer filmed at a Las Vegas party, where individuals who allegedly secured massive profits from prediction markets gathered to watch the World Cup final. During the clip, one attendee mentions betting on Kalshi, while another displays a smartphone screen showing a $5,000 wager.
Kalshi contends that this depiction is deceptive because the platform is currently prohibited from operating in Nevada under a court order. The company asserts that the bet shown on the phone is a screenshot from May 16, 2025—a date preceding the legal ban. Consequently, Kalshi argues that Netflix is misleading its massive subscriber base by implying that the individual successfully traded sports event contracts within Nevada on July 19, 2026.
Communication Breakdown with Netflix
According to the letter, Kalshi previously engaged with a Netflix employee who allegedly agreed to omit the disputed receipt from the final documentary, which is scheduled for release on Sunday, July 26. However, Kalshi claims that despite providing clear evidence that the trailer’s implications were false, the streaming giant has refused to remove the footage from the trailer currently featured on the Netflix app homepage.
Netflix’s Stance on the Allegations
While Netflix does not contest that the screenshot originated from a 2025 bet, a spokesperson told The Hollywood Reporter that the documentary footage is authentic and not fabricated.
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“The footage was filmed at the Winible World Cup Watch Weekend in Las Vegas on July 17, 2026,” the spokesperson stated. “The featured trader with the trade on Spain showed us a screenshot of his bet, that was made in May 2025 prior to any Nevada court order. Any specific trades or bets referenced during that weekend are between the individual and the app in which they placed the trades.”
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